'Mithrildor' said:
Go to japan....
Each person has like 4 DSes there
Is not one off the sell points in PC vs Console wars, that the Console fanboys claim how expensive PC's are compare to a Console. Expect that a lot off people seem to buy a revision during the lifespan ( like a PS2 -> PS2 Slim, PSP -> PSP 3000, DS -> DSi etc ). Joined with the higher game prices... They might just end up paying more then any PC gamer, but don't realize it
'Phawx' said:
$1,000 isn't that big of a deal, but its something in these tough times. So when I said I was "afraid", What I meant was I am slightly on edge that OP is losing time. The longer it takes for the Pandora to arrive to us, the more there is a chance that a device comes out that steals sales from OP. However small that chance may be.
Your not the only person with that "fear".
If there is one thing i
hate, is buying a piece off technology, and only a few months later, finding out that there is something coming / or is out, that has twice the performance. Devaluation your original product almost instantly.
Thats why the OMAP3630 is so problematic. Whats there to prevent a few Chinese clone makers from creating there own "Pandora" with a OMAP3630. The longer the shipping & heaving it in
everybody's hand ( i don't consider the first batch complete, if the first person gets it on date x, and the last person only gets it x + 2 months ).
Despite the reassuring words that some people say, i have been in the IT sector long enough to know how fast something can move. And what worries me the most, is the life expectation off the 65nm OMAP3's. If 6 months after we get our Pandora's, TI desires that the 45nm process is way better for there profit margin, and they are at high production capacity, that they phase out the 65nm part ( deliberate production drop, price increase, etc ... i've seen it all before ).
It may be all good & well that Craigex, MW, ... expect the Pandora to be a 2 year minimum uniform supplied system, but like we already saw during the production, you are depended on 3th parties. If TI said to Craigex, "from now on, use the 36xx serie, for the same price price, or lower, and it's pin compatible"... You need to be daft to say no
And there might be even little to no choice in the mater.
I look at it from this point off view:
- TI & a few other ARM suppliers are trying to break into the UMPC, nettop etc market. You don't do that with a big press announcement, and then have the customers wait 1 or 2 years. That might have worked for other markets, but not the PC market.
- TI claims sampling starts in Q3. The fact that they now already have the set clock speed, and gpu speed, indicated that they are already sampling now, and are looking for production sampling. From that point, things can go fast if there are no major flaws in the design.
- The 36xx serie has been already know for a while. But was first quoted to being 800Mhz, now we know its 720Mhz to 1Ghz. So, i suspect that this reinforces the point above. That they are already archiving adduct results, to know what there set cpu speed can be.
- Competition seem to be increasing in the ARM market, to deliverer ARM based cpu's to this new UMPC/nettop/... market. In other words, again, those pre announcements can bit them in the ass, so now they don't have the luxury for a 2 year delay.
- Expected delivery date for the
first customers is start off April. But MB production is still in batches, need manual os flash jobs, manual testing, etc. If the last customers from the first batch have theres by mid May, consider yourself lucky. Then we come back to point 1, 2 & 3.
- What if there are other upgrades like the memory on 45nm, with increased capacity... And off we go again...
I know that some people have a holly confidence in Craigex, etc, but there also needs to be some realism. May i remember people that the expected delivery date was End off November, last year!
Even if there was not the financial problems, with all the manufacturing problems, it will have been more like January. Now we are talking about April at best, while the final production off the cases is not even started. Don't forget, that case it just another prototype. Its not like it will be delivered on Monday, and production can start on Tuesday.
* Whats even the status off the MB production? I hope that it already started! In other words, that the MB batches are arriving & are getting tested already. If not... What if something else goes wrong again...
* How is the battery production? Going as planned, or not even started yet?
* Whats the status off the finished key mat production? Going as planned, or not even started yet.
* Then we have the CE testing. The hope was a few days compared to a month. No offense, but take a month to be "safe". Based on the track record here. You can push all you want, but like i said, 3th party... If they delay because off any reason...
It does not take a rocket genius to see how many things that can go wrong, and delay the project even more.
My own guess time line for the case:
Case test sample done: 04 March 2009
Delivery at best: 10 March 2009 ( Yes, it needs to be tested again a physical setup again, because there have been changes to the design ).
Production starting off the case: 16 to 20 March 2009.
Required amount for a first batch: +5 days.
Delivery at best 28 March...
For the other elements, there is to little information to be a guess time line.
You know, i have had several people ask me what happened to that "thing" that i ordered. Its nice to keep telling them: "Its not in production", "They are still solving problems"... And you get a look back ... Today we are March 2009... I for one do not see it physically possible to start delivering the first batches by start off April 2009 ( You may always prove me wrong!
).
