Another alternate solution: accepting an item that's of lesser value

[WizardStan]

I think there's a misunderstanding of some sort (or maybe I'm misunderstanding your message?)

You are. You seem to be thinking that I am saying that you are not entitled to a Pandora or something along those lines. I'm not. I'm simply saying that this particular argument you are making, that Pandora Production would necessarily have failed if not for every single one of the 500(ish) remaining preorders is extremely faulty and should not be used, especially when there are many other arguments that make more sense.

we "completed" the production.

I never said anything about completed. What are you talking about?

Furthermore, isn't it contradictionary to say "upgrades and 1Ghz units are what kept things going", but the pre-order money didn't?

Not at all. There's empirical evidence that upgrades and 1Ghz sales helped keep things going. Not all, of course, I'm not going to guess as to exactly how much, but at least some is provable: not only do we know for fact that the money was actually going to EvilDragon who has been running the production, but he has made several forum posts stating that after X upgrades he is sending out Y Pandoras. On the other hand, the final 500 preorders gave money to Craig and there is absolutely no evidence that any of that money was ever given to EvilDragon for the production of Pandoras. Given the current standing we have no way of knowing where that money went.

I could try to interpolate from the available information the approximate time at which the funds would have run out if it weren't for the extra 150000€, but that's quite a lot of work just to "prove" something, so I think I'll pass.

You're getting close to my point. Formally proving your point in an argument sometimes does take a lot of work. If you have several arguments that all amount to the same thing, one of which you can't actually prove, USE THE ONES THAT YOU CAN PROVE. If you can't prove it it is useless and may even be counter productive. Stating that EvilDragon owes his success to any of the remaining 500 preorders is an unprovable argument and is counter productive in the discussion.If you really did want to go down this path, expecting me to prove the point you think I'm making and not the one I'm actually making, all I'd have to do is demonstrate that production would have continued if there was just one fewer pre-order, a mere $330 smaller in the pool, and I could do it if pressed. Your argument requires demonstrating that all 500 were required, without a single one of which production would have failed years ago.

But that's not what I'm trying to prove, all I'm trying to prove is that your argument is faulty.

So I don't think the burden of proof is on my court, after all

Yes it is. That's how burden of proof works. You made the claim, you're the one that is trying to use this as an argument as to why you are entitled to a Pandora. You can't just say "I deserver this" and then get upset when someone asks you why you think so.If I were saying "you don't deserver this" then I have made the claim and therefore it is up to me to prove my stance. Fortunately I haven't said that; my only claim is that your claim isn't strong enough, and I've demonstrated where it falls short, I've proven everything that I need to. Back to your court.

Everything you are saying is, once again, that without the 500 remaining pre-orders there would have been 150000 less funds somewhere in there, but you haven't actually proved that any of those funds were required. You've just got a hand wavey "of course they needed the money" paragraph. "Common sense" is frequently wrong, that's why proper debate requires facts. You can't just say "obviously such and such". PROVE such and such. If you can't prove it then it is a terrible argument. Did Craig use any of that 150000 towards Pandora production? Perhaps he did, and that 150000 paid for 200 earlier Pandoras, but that means that without these last 500 Pandoras the queue would only be at 200, meaning 300 of the current last 500 are superfluous. That's all speculation, of course, but demonstrates how your "obviously" common-sense arguments are not necessarily correct.

Saying that EvilDragon owes his success even in part to the remaining 500 pre-orders is a terrible argument because it cannot be proven. There are many arguments that can and should be used, but this is not one of them.

 

[ShleeDragon]

Apparently the GCW are not shipping... so that's another delay'ed queue

 

[aatu]

@WizardStan:

I'm not sure to whom you are mistaking me, but I don't think I ever said I'm "entitled" to something (nor did I think or say that you claimed I wouldn't be, either, btw), or that I "deserve" something. I think even in this very thread I've said it twice already: We know ED isn't accountable to us.

Though granted, I know the way I'm defending these matters might give the impression like I'm running a campaign for the pre-orderers' rights or something.

In any case, I'm not sure which argument or claim of mine would require me to prove that a SINGULAR pre-orderer was vital or crucial? I'm not and wasn't saying it was any single person that's crucial (or that's at least not what I'm trying to get through to others). But I am saying that the 150000€ as a whole was vital for the survival (and by chance, there's recent proof for that, a little bit later in this post). I think it would be nitpicking to require that a single pre-orderer would be crucial. As the same would have to go for the investors and upgraders. We didn't actually need any certain ONE of them. We needed them all. Just like we needed all the pre-orderers, too. Ok, maybe if there was one singular HUGE investor, then we could say he as a single person was paramount to keeping the project going.

It's like the story of the last straw that broke the camel's back. Combine small things, and they will together form a bigger unity. A huge investor would be comparable to a bigger bale, while singular pre-orders, upgraders, smaller investors and donators are the straws.

Or because that example is upside-down, then imagine building a dam. One twig or tree branch will be next to useless, but collect enough of them, and you have something worthwhile.

Regarding not saying anything about "completed":
Yes you did:

I'm sorry, but I haven't heard any convincing arguments that if the pre-orders had been 500 fewer then production wouldn't have been completed.

And the way you worded the post after that further strengthened the feeling that you were under the impression that this project somehow had reached the point where we are in the clear. So I'd like to emphasize:
I don't think the project has yet survived. I think it's still fighting with its bare knuckles. Desperate measures might be upon us, but that's another issue.

Regarding pre-order vs upgrade&1GHz money:
You say "upgrades and 1Ghz units are what kept things going", yet you say we can't trust Craig used all the pre-order money for the benefit of the project? I have a recollection that Craig handled most of the upgrade and 1GHz money at first. You can't say he was untrustworthy with the pre-order money, but trustworthy with the other money. So your statements are contradictory, in my opinion. Or are you saying only the ED's upgraders and 1GHz buyers kept the project going?

Also, you say we know some money went to ED who was running the production? Same exact phrase goes for Craig. How is it any different? And after X amount of upgrades Y amount of Pandoras were sent? Yeah, Craig wasn't as vocal or transparent with this, but we heard from forum-goers when they got their units, so I think it's on the same scale of provable. While it's fine if you trust ED more, like most of us indeed do, but that in itself doesn't prove anything more.

Also, for the project as a whole, it doesn't matter how much of that 150000€ went to ED in cash. The project was brought to a certain point by Craig. If the project had failed at an earlier point, then there wouldn't have been anything to carry on, at least not without even bigger investments. So the question really is "did the 150000€ help the project go further?". And by chance someone posted the link to the financials of OpenPandora LTD, on another thread:
https://www.duedil.com/company/06513352/openpandora-ltd/financials

We can see that already somewhere between Februaries of 2009 and 2010 the cash reserve dibs below 70k. By simple math we can deduct that without the 150k it would have reached 0€ at some point, at which time more money would have been required to collect. By quick interpolation I would say the money would have fallen short some time in the summer of 2009. That's still quite a long way to the actual production starting. Actually, when looking at it like that, it looks like we wouldn't have even gotten out the development phase if it weren't for the 150k, not to mention ordering actual parts for the production.

And sure, all of this can be questioned if we start speculating and building conspiracy theories about how Craig has actually driven an elaborate ruse, and has been pocketing all the money himself. But if we go that far, then what guarantee would we have that ED and Craig didn't orchestrate this whole thing together?

 

[ShleeDragon]

Id love to see the 2013 records.

 

[WizardStan]

I'm not sure to whom you are mistaking me, but I don't think I ever said I'm "entitled" to something (nor did I think or say that you claimed I wouldn't be, either, btw), or that I "deserve" something. I think even in this very thread I've said it twice already: We know ED isn't accountable to us.

It was gringe who made the original statement "developpement of the Pandora was supported by the preorders". The implication is that the 500 remaining pre-orders were in part key to keeping production running and that without these 500 ED would not currently be in the position he is of being able to simply sell Pandoras. My argument goes that you cannot prove that even one of the remaining 500 were actually needed

In any case, I'm not sure which argument or claim of mine would require me to prove that a SINGULAR pre-orderer was vital or crucial? I'm not and wasn't saying it was any single person that's crucial (or that's at least not what I'm trying to get through to others). But I am saying that the 150000€ as a whole was vital for the survival (and by chance, there's recent proof for that, a little bit later in this post). I think it would be nitpicking to require that a single pre-orderer would be crucial. As the same would have to go for the investors and upgraders. We didn't actually need any certain ONE of them. We needed them all. Just like we needed all the pre-orderers, too. Ok, maybe if there was one singular HUGE investor, then we could say he as a single person was paramount to keeping the project going.

You are saying that the 150000 was vital, I'm asking you to prove it. I'm asking if they had only received 149700 would the production have failed? What if they'd only received 149400? Is production really so knife-edge that every single one of the remaining 500 was absolutely necessary, without which EvilDragon would not have been able to continue? And if not all of them then how many?

Or because that example is upside-down, then imagine building a dam. One twig or tree branch will be next to useless, but collect enough of them, and you have something worthwhile.

Yes, I am not debating this at all, 150000 does seem to be a lot of money. My argument is that you see the water is not flowing, you see this huge dam, and assume that the dam is holding back some tidal wave of water, that this dam is arguably somehow responsible, at least in part, for keeping the town below it dry and the town should be grateful that the dam exists. What if we looked on the other side of the dam and discovered that there was just a tiny pond, or even no water whatsoever? Getting to the top of the dam to actually look down would be a lot of work and I'm sure we could do it if we really wanted to. My argument is that you don't know that the dam is holding back this flood of water, and there's actually a lot of supporting evidence from other paperwork to suggest that there's not nearly as much water as some people seem to think, so why is it being used as an argument to prove how important the dam is? This is not to say the dam isn't important, the analogy breaks down here because I can't think of an important use for a dam that doesn't involve blocking water, but let's just say there are a lot of other entirely valid and provable reasons why the dam deserves to exist. Why are people using this unprovable and potentially counter productive argument about how much water the dam is holding when there are all these other better arguments?

Regarding not saying anything about "completed":

Yes you did:

I'm sorry, but I haven't heard any convincing arguments that if the pre-orders had been 500 fewer then production wouldn't have been completed.

And the way you worded the post after that further strengthened the feeling that you were under the impression that this project somehow had reached the point where we are in the clear. So I'd like to emphasize:I don't think the project has yet survived. I think it's still fighting with its bare knuckles. Desperate measures might be upon us, but that's another issue.

Ok, that was poor wording. I fixed myself in all later posts to talk about EvilDragon's success specifically. EvilDragon has completed his pre-order, he is entirely in the black, he is successful. Does he necessarily owe his success to any of the remaining 500 pre-orders? I have not heard any arguments that demonstrate that empirically.

Regarding pre-order vs upgrade&1GHz money:

You say "upgrades and 1Ghz units are what kept things going", yet you say we can't trust Craig used all the pre-order money for the benefit of the project? I have a recollection that Craig handled most of the upgrade and 1GHz money at first. You can't say he was untrustworthy with the pre-order money, but trustworthy with the other money. So your statements are contradictory, in my opinion. Or are you saying only the ED's upgraders and 1GHz buyers kept the project going?

There were only ED's upgraders and 1GHzs. All the money from upgrades and 1Ghz sales (after the first at any rate) went directly to EvilDragon. If you are with Craig and you upgrade your order you are paying EvilDragon directly, you are not giving Craig any more money which may or may not be used to fund a Pandora: the money you spend upgrading is definitely being used to fund the Pandora you purchase.

We can see that already somewhere between Februaries of 2009 and 2010 the cash reserve dibs below 70k. By simple math we can deduct that without the 150k it would have reached 0€ at some point, at which time more money would have been required to collect. By quick interpolation I would say the money would have fallen short some time in the summer of 2009. That's still quite a long way to the actual production starting. Actually, when looking at it like that, it looks like we wouldn't have even gotten out the development phase if it weren't for the 150k, not to mention ordering actual parts for the production.

That's not a valid argument. They're already negative. They were negative when they started. If simply having debt is the requirement for failure then the project was failed from day one. But of course production continued because they need to take debt in order to produce something to sell later. Let's suppose that the 150K did go into Pandora production entirely. Without it, instead of being 70K in debt they'd be 220K in debt. Can you state, with evidence, that if they had hit 220K debt instead of 70K debt that production would have failed? What about 80K? Is the project so dire that an extra 10K would have caused it to fail years ago? Where is the separation? At what actual point would the project have failed? You don't know, I don't know, it cannot be proven, therefore it is a bad argument. There are many good arguments that can be used, but this one relies heavily on what one's opinion of "a lot of money" is.

 

[aatu]

Ok, I think there's a bit of misunderstanding:
The 2009 statement has 197k in cash. 2010 has 66k. 2011 has 29k. 2012 has 10k. All are positive. Below is a chart showing the cash flow. What you're talking about is probably Net assets (or Net worth, which seems to be the same in this case), also included in the chart. I also included the Cash flow without the 150k.




Unfortunately, without Cash you can't operate for very long. So you need to raise more money. So the "Cash without 150k" is not a viable line. The line would have simply stayed near zero, or probably spiked up via some sort of alternative fund raiser.

Note: the graph only has the yearly figures, rest is interpolated and software-smoothed (cubic spline). In reality, there would be more up-and-downs, with regards to upgrade-sales and material/component orders, etc.

... So before I reply in more depth, I think I'll let you restate your opinion with regards to the proof-part, as the above view kind of changes the field.

Regarding the dam-example:
I'm thinking the dam was indeed vital, because we've needed alternative ways to raise money basically all the time. And actually, if we weigh in the fact that they set the price below cost in the beginning, then it's logical that at some point they needed more money than they had (even the R&D costs are not included in the unit cost). The only way that the 150k wouldn't have been needed, would be that there was an excess of 150k at the bank all the time. But like the chart above shows, this wasn't the case.

Or think about it this way:
If they had enough money, then why did they need to raise more money via premiums, upgrades and 1GHz (from now on "PU1")?

Regarding 1GHz and upgrades being ED-only:
You are talking about the current situation. Initially both of them sold PU1. And because Craig had a sizable portion of the pre-orders, most of the PU1 were also from Craig. Only the later upgrades and 1GHz were ED-only. But this was a long time after the move to Germany.

And remember, Craig's PU1 money is included in the above chart. And even with that money, cash flow didn't get any better. More like decline only slowed a bit, for a while.

Ps. Earlier I talked about "Buy now, get now", but later remembered they were officially called "Premium Pandoras", so gonna use that from here on out.

 

[WizardStan]

... So before I reply in more depth, I think I'll let you restate your opinion with regards to the proof-part, as the above view kind of changes the field.

No, it absolutely doesn't. The argument that every single one of the 500 pre-orders was required, else production would have failed years ago, is still supported by speculation. It doesn't matter when they had money or when they didn't. It doesn't matter that they need money now or that more money is always welcome. The statement states that EvilDragon owes his current success to ALL pre-orders, heavily implying that production would have ceased years ago if not for them. This is a very bold claim. Lots of companies go red for years before they start turning a profit, simply saying that they were negative does not prove that they needed the money, that they couldn't have produced product without it. Saying "I think such and such" is not an argument, because people can interpret data differently depending on context. That is why you need hard facts and why this is a bad argument to use. You cannot point to any set of facts that definitively proves that all 500 remaining preorders were required else production would have failed. If you can, please do so and I will rescind my complaint.

 

[aatu]

You know, if you make a reply to my post, I would appreciate if you at least took the time to take a look at the image I'm providing as a proof (which you're saying I'm not providing), and which I'm using as a basis for my explanation. (It has been downloaded 0 (zero) times atm, so...)



Though for now, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, maybe the system doesn't register a simple view of the picture or something.

And again, we're not saying every SINGLE pre-orderer was crucial. By comparison, you first stated that "none" of the remaining pre-orderers were needed. Now it's that not every single one of them was needed? Dude. I thought we got through this, already.

And like said multiple times before, we don't claim that ED owes us, as we know he isn't accountable to us. We do, however, feel that we were a vital part for the project's survival.

"It doesn't matter when they had money or when they didn't. It doesn't matter that they need money now or that more money is always welcome."
"Lots of companies go red for years before they start turning a profit, simply saying that they were negative does not prove that they needed the money, that they couldn't have produced product without it."
Excuse me?! Are you tired or something, by any chance? By that analogy, we didn't need the premiums, upgraders, 1GHz sales, investors nor donators. We could have just continued on the red, and pay once we got more sales.

Companies don't go on the red with regards to cash. They go on the red with regards to net profit or revenue, etc. Which are another thing entirely.

Ok, I'm not sure how I can explain it in any simpler way:
You see the cash flow line? Once that dips below 150k, that's the point where they started to use the remaining pre-orderers' money, as there was no other money left. The next cash infusion (Premium Pandoras) came in 2011. At that point, there was less than 30k cash left, which means 120k was already used of the remaining pre-orderers' money. But even with the premiums, the cash flow keeps declining, so even more of the remaining pre-orderers' money is used. In Feb 2012, only 10k is remaining. This means that at least 140k of the pre-order money was used at that point. The financial records don't show the 2013 figures, so we can't say anything concrete for that.

Or are you refuting the cash flow figures, or the financial sheet as a whole, by any chance?

Ps. Just to make sure: the graph I provided in my previous post (chart3.png) is using the actual figures gotten from the financial sheet.

 

[WizardStan]

You know, if you make a reply to my post, I would appreciate if you at least took the time to take a look at the image I'm providing as a proof (which you're saying I'm not providing), and which I'm using as a basis for my explanation.

Ok, I am wrong. The argument is entirely sound. EvilDragon has a moral obligation to ensure that all 500 remaining pre-orders get the Pandora they paid for because without them production would have failed and there is absolutely no way he would be successful right now.

 

[HelenF]

I think the argument is sound that the project would probably have failed if not for the 150k. This does not mean EvilDragon has a moral obligation to give every preorderer a Pandora out of his own pocket.

 

[elwing]

I think the argument is sound that the project would probably have failed if not for the 150k. This does not mean EvilDragon has a moral obligation to give every preorderer a Pandora out of his own pocket.

definately, but on the other side, him gaining money from pandora when the "developement costs" have not being paid yet isn't really nice either...

 

[WizardStan]

I think the argument is sound that the project would probably have failed if not for the 150k. This does not mean EvilDragon has a moral obligation to give every preorderer a Pandora out of his own pocket.

The argument is stating that he effectively survived on "stolen" goods. Not literally stolen, of course, it's just the best word I can think of at the moment. I firmly believe that if someone gives you a gift and you find out that it was stolen then you have a moral obligation to return that stolen item. You disagree?

 

[HelenF]

The project would also have failed if ED hadn't taken it over. And ED wouldn't have agreed to take it over if that meant being liable for all the money that Craig lost. ED has already put in a lot of money and a lot of work, and the preorderers are better off for it.

 

[WizardStan]

The project would also have failed if ED hadn't taken it over. And ED wouldn't have agreed to take it over if that meant being liable for all the money that Craig lost. ED has already put in a lot of money and a lot of work, and the preorderers are better off for it.

You are talking at odds.If it is not immoral to repay the old pre-orders, that is it would not be net detrimental, then it is moral to repay them. If it is moral behaviour and EvilDragon owes them a debt directly related to that behaviour then he has an obligation to perform the moral behaviour.

If he owes his success to the remaining pre-orders AND it would be a good thing to pay them back for their forced sacrifice then he should be expected to, and not doing so would be immoral. This is a necessary logical conclusion based on the science of morality.

 

[HelenF]

If ED repaid all of the pre-orders, he would be worse off than before taking over the project, and there wouldn't be any success to owe them. He stepped in to save the project and I think he deserves to be paid for his work. In that logic, the amount owed would be Pandora profits minus fair wages. Until recently, I believe he's been donating profits from all products and working for free. The 300 EUR offer means no longer donating profits from other sales, but still working for free (which is also paying back the pre-orders if more slowly).

 

[WizardStan]

If ED repaid all of the pre-orders, he would be worse off than before taking over the project, and there wouldn't be any success to owe them.

Only if paid off all at once. If he continues to repay them out of the profits he is making, none of which would even exist if not for these preorders. If he repays slowly, as he has been, then he can pay himself a fair wage and still pay back what is owed.

the amount owed would be Pandora profits minus fair wages

That doesn't mean he owes any less. Why would the 500 preorders be paying his wage? He does deserve to be paid but that doesn't mean the preorders have to pay it. They gave 150K. If ED truly owes them for his success then he owes them the full 150K. He can take some of the profits (which, as has been argued, would not exist without the 500 remaining preorders) to pay himself a fair wage, and the rest used towards repaying those that saved him until the full amount is paid back. If even one Pandora is left undelivered that is one person that kept the project alive and is therefore owed for their sacrifice but has not received. No matter how long it takes, if he owes it to them then he has a moral obligation to repay them. *edit* Until it is no longer moral to continue repaying them, that is. If someone can successfully argue that repaying the pre-orders is damaging to the Pandora society as a whole then it becomes immoral and he's no longer obligated to do it. In fact if such an argument were made he'd be morally obligated to dump the remaining pre-orders in order to focus on whatever they were preventing which would allow the project to flourish.Of course he isn't the only one who owes them: everyone that upgraded after and all the people buying Pandoras right now would not have had the opportunity if not for these 500 preorders. They are paying an inflated cost to help pay back these remaining pre-orders.

 

[elwing]

now what would make sens would be that he only use fund generated by pandora sales (an maybe not even all the benefice from theses sales) to fund old preorder and completely stop using fund from the rest of his shop...

 

[aatu]

My 2c:

We don't know what kind of deal Craig and ED made when they moved the production to Germany. For this reason, we can't hold ED responsible to uphold the pre-orders. He's been doing everything he can to deliver as many pre-order units as possible. If he's saying it's not viable anymore, then that's it.

If on the other hand they made the deal so that ED would deliver all the units, then yes, I would hold him accountable. But from what I can remember, it was said that Craig pays minimum production costs for the units going his way, and ED handles the rest. Or something along those lines. But the general concensus was that ED wasn't taking responsibility for Craig's customers.

Strictly speaking, in business world there's no such thing as moral obligation. On the other hand, ED has legal obligation to repay the investors, so that serves as a primary obligation. Whatever moral obligation ED feels he has for others, is purely secondary and non-official (though not necessarily even a bad thing for the company, as it's indeed positive PR and an act of goodwill if he manages to deliver this queue, and bad PR if there are people in the queue).

Neither should we expect the people who already got their Pandoras to uphold any moral obligation, either. They didn't sign up for that. What I want them to do, however, is to be grateful they actually got their Pandoras. And to those who feel like they want to give something extra in return, either by helping the pre-orderers or trying to get more customers to ED, we are grateful, instead.

 

[WizardStan]

We don't know what kind of deal Craig and ED made when they moved the production to Germany. For this reason, we can't hold ED responsible to uphold the pre-orders

-.-This was basically the crux of my complaint. We don't know the deal, we don't know the facts, we don't know anything about what happened to the 150K so it shouldn't be used as a factual argument holding EvildRagon responsible for the remaining pre-orders. Why the heck were you arguing against that when that is precisely what you are saying now?

Strictly speaking, in business world there's no such thing as moral obligation

Morality is an equation that applies to everyone, including businesses: if it net benefits society it is moral, if it is net detriment to society it is immoral. What you mean is that in business sometimes it makes sense to ignore moral obligations in favour of financial obligations, or more frequently that the variables are more complex than for an individual as to make it much harder to determine which actions are strictly more moral than others. The obligation is still there, it's just easier to justify away or ignore.
Note that this is moral obligation in the "I wish to be a moral person, therefore I must not do immoral things" sense: it is an obligation only in so far as doing "the right thing" makes you feel good and doing "the wrong thing" makes you feel bad. There isn't necessarily any negative consequences to individuals or business for not living up to the obligation, but it should at least make you feel bad for not doing the thing you know you should have.

 

[HelenF]

OK, I confused total amount with speed.

But I think the project would probably have failed without the 150k, and I still don't really think ED owes the 150k.