200 Million Next-gen Consoles Sold By 2012


shinneri

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http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/07/19/news_6129441.html
As the launch of the Xbox 360 nears, yet another research firm has publicized its predictions for the life cycle of the next generation of consoles. This time around, the company in question is Strategy Analytics, a multinational consulting firm headquartered in Newton, Massachusetts.


Today, the company released a study titled "Games Consoles for the Digital Home: Assessing the Prospects for PS3, Xbox 360 and Revolution." The company summarized the findings of the study in a heavily circulated press release that contained a few key statistics and some interesting predictions.

According to Strategy Analytics, the Xbox 360 will be the top console in the US and European markets...until 2007, provided Sony exploits its console's online potential and technical muscle. "Microsoft's Xbox 360 will present a serious challenge to Sony's dominance of the games console market," read the report. "But the PlayStation 3 (PS3) will eventually pull ahead if Sony ensures that its online experience matches that of the Xbox 360, and that its Cell processor technology meets its full potential to transform gaming into a near-video quality experience."

Strategy Analytics also offered some projected numbers to back up its assertions. It predicts that both Sony and Microsoft will increase their share of the console market at Nintendo's expense. The report predicts that over the next seven years, around 200 million next-generation consoles will be sold. Of those, 121.8 million (60.9 percent) will be PS3s, 58.8 (29.4 percent) will be Xbox 360s, and just 18 million (9 percent) will be Nintendo Revolutions. "Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47 billion," said the report.

Although it doesn't address the fact both Sony and Microsoft are expected to lose money on every PS3 and Xbox 360 they sell, Strategy Analytics' report does touch on their wider next-gen plans. "Both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will become cornerstones of each company's digital home strategy," said the company. "Sony will use the PS3 to help establish Blu-ray Disc and the Cell processor as mass market technologies. For Microsoft the Xbox 360 could secure a leading position for the home PC as a broadband digital media server."

"The Xbox 360 represents one of Microsoft's best hopes of controlling the digital home," said David Mercer, principal analyst at Strategy Analytics, in a statement. Mercer also made a rather obvious prediction, saying "The 2005 holiday season will be a make-or-break time not only for the Xbox 360, but also for Microsoft's wider digital home strategy."

I can't help but think this is a bunch of bunk. Though their outcomes as to sales may end up correct proportionally, In actuality any of these console could have their GTA or Halo-like system seller that makes anyone and everyone want the console. Plus we don't even know much of anything about the Rev, so how can this be an accurate analysis?
 

Mark

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Angel posted on Jul 20 2005 at 01:40 PM said:
i agree with you, it's waaaay to early to tell anything, but I will make one prediction. I predict this will be Nintendo's last console.

People keep saying this, and citing the Dreamcast as an example, but it's not going to happen. Nintendo are a very rich company that, hopefully by the end of next year, will have games coming out for two handhelds and two consoles. Plus, Nintendo don't even need to get anywhere near as many sales of consoles as the other two, as they are cheaper (at least in the case of the Cube) to make.

Plus, Nintendo have strong, Japanese, Conservative views, and there is no way that they would want to make games for another console, especially if that happens to be US giant Microsoft.
But yes, far too early to tell.
 
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Vimacs

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no way nintendo would go down, they sell like 10 times more cubes than xboxes in jap, nd they even make a big ++ on cubes worldwide, also they earn much money in the handheld sector, i dont see how nintendo would go anyware near bakrupt.

Also all that "predections" are complete shitt, i mean, how can they tell anything about how much what will sell when not even the full specs of all systems are known, they just make that studies to get publicity, they are marketing and nothing more.
 

shinneri

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Mark posted on Jul 20 2005 at 09:02 AM said:
People keep saying this, and citing the Dreamcast as an example, but it's not going to happen. Nintendo are a very rich company that, hopefully by the end of next year, will have games coming out for two handhelds and two consoles. Plus, Nintendo don't even need to get anywhere near as many sales of consoles as the other two, as they are cheaper (at least in the case of the Cube) to make.
Nintendo has never lost money on one of their home consoles (probably only thing they DID lose on was the Virtual Boy). As a matter of fact, they often make more than the other two because they're just so freaking cheap about things, which works to their advantage profit-wise. They'll keep making consoles as long as they still make money off of them, and they have been and probably still will. ;)

But yeah, I don't doubt Nintendo will come out last worldwide.
 
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