Ok So, How Many Pandoras Are Shipped To Customers?


mypetfrog said:
Heck, I was supposed to be 400-500 in the UK queue, does that mean I should get mine soon?

Cheers.

I am in exactly the same position, 400-500. In theory we should have ours by now, since 1000 have shipped, so that means that Craig should have shipped at least 750. I even got an email, back in June, from one of the girls saying "Yes your order will be made from the current 1000 cases that are already produced", reassuring me that I would not have to wait until the next batch of cases. But the pandy still isn't here. The only explanation is that they have a >25% failure/return rate. *sadface*

FYI, I haven't had a mailing list email since I re-ordered last year either. I believe there have been at least 2 since then.

I guess we will be pretty close to the start of the next batch though, and I got from an email from one of the girls today saying that production should resume within 7-10 days.

So just sit tight, I guess!
 
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The >25% fail rate I assure you won't be backed by Craig, I recall his noting rather negatively that the LCD cable fail rate was only from the first 400 units (followed by people noting all units shipped to date are within that number) was only 30 to date. I can believe that high though.

I thought Fatih was assured to get 200 of the first 1000 units in total. I know every fourth Pandora is going to Ed, so that on top of the returns could go a fair distance toward explaining the reported 1000 units vs. the actual number with their Pandora in their hands.
 
I think I just read that the next shipment of boards going out this week is only 100 boards. At this rate then wont finish batch one by april 2011.
 
Korlithiel said:
The >25% fail rate I assure you won't be backed by Craig, I recall his noting rather negatively that the LCD cable fail rate was only from the first 400 units (followed by people noting all units shipped to date are within that number) was only 30 to date. I can believe that high though.

I thought Fatih was assured to get 200 of the first 1000 units in total. I know every fourth Pandora is going to Ed, so that on top of the returns could go a fair distance toward explaining the reported 1000 units vs. the actual number with their Pandora in their hands.

According to the second post of this thread, Fatih only got 20. I have no idea about how many he got, but if it is 200, and they for some reason decided to prioritise his orders (giving him all of his from the first 1000 rather than giving him 5 out of every hundred, as 200 out of 4000 would suggest), then that 200 could lower the failure rate I estimated and also account for why <500 of Craig's orders have been sent out. Or maybe they really have shipped ~750 from Craig's queue but they somehow missed some of us. Somehow the numbers we are given don't seem to add up.

So I don't know.
 
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TBH, it is misleading for the team to even say they have shipped 1000.... this implies that 1000 customers have received pandoras. But since we know that some failed (either failed testing or returned after failure) and that they have only had 1000 cases to start off with, there is no way that 1000 people can have their Pandoras yet.

Also, perhaps this is obvious to everyone, but we can employ some grade school maths to work this out more specifically:

Pandoras shipped from craigs list = (total pandoras produced - pandoras that failed) - pandoras given to Ed - pandoras given to fatih

= (total pandoras produced - pandoras that failed) - (total pandoras produced - pandoras that failed)*(proportion given to Ed) - pandoras given to fatih

Putting in numbers we 'know':
= (1000 - pandoras that failed) - (1000 - pandoras that failed)*(1/4) - 20
= (1000 - pandoras that failed)*(1 - 1/4) - 20
= (1000 - pandoras that failed)*(3/4) - 20

If they had no failed pandoras:

pandoras shipped from craigs list = 1000*3/4 - 20 = 730

But if they haven't got past (or even to) 500 in Craigs list yet, which appears to be the case (no pun intended), we can calculate the failure rate for this:

500 = (1000 - pandoras that failed)*(3/4) - 20
520*(4/3) - 1000 = -pandoras that failed
pandoras that failed = 1000 - 520*(4/3)
pandoras that failed ~= 307
~= 31% of 1000 units

<Edit>
Also, from above, you can see that if Craig has shipped 500, the total shipped number would be 693
</Edit>

Of course, it is possible that they have messed up the order of the orders _really_ badly, and have actually shipped more than 500 but skipped a bunch of people.

Hopefully the failure rate is at least lowered significantly now that they have fixed the manufacturing problems. And either way, my pandora should be in the next 100 or so that are heading out :D
 
now make the same calculation assuming each order is about 1.2 Pandoras, to account for those that bought multiple :p
 
Eddited to say Ninja'd by WizardStan above... :D

---

The only slight problem with your maths is that assumes there is a 1 to 1 ratio of orders to machines. But we know a number of people ordered mutiple.

But I can't believe that accounts for more than say 50 in total, and even that sounds optimistic. I think we can safely say the RMA rate is high, albeit that as a recent receiver of a fine and dandy unit, the QA appears to have improved.

But the 1000 units shifted, whilst good PR is a little confusing - there are certainly much fewer Pandora orderers who have received.

All a bit academic - lets just hope the nubs, boards and cases all start arriving on time and soon.
 
EdCa22 said:
TBH, it is misleading for the team to even say they have shipped 1000.... this implies that 1000 customers have received pandoras.
Well, they didn't actually say that, really. :p A mailshot said that they were about to ship the thousandth unit. The relevant text follows;

As many of you will already know the Pandora finally started
shipping in May and after a few teething problems we are about to ship
the 1000th unit. We aim to keep it at the top with near continuous software
tweaks and updates.
 
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I smell some Marketing-Propaganda in this Number at this time. ^^"
I guess they only had 1000 Cases at the beginning. If they didn't recieved the new ones since then and already built and shipped new Pandoras with these new cases, I doubt at the time 1000 Pandoras were really shipped to the end-customers. Maybe 1000 were built, including spare units and so on. But shipped? :huh:
Maybe Craig counted the repaired and re-shipped Units, of course then it should match and a true Announcement. But however, It is not the best Marketing, especialy beacuse it took ~5 Months to make 1000 Pandoras. Better not mention this to often even if it was not the fault of Craig & Co. I really ope (like everyone) that the Supporting Companies really speed up this time so OP-Team can really focus on the assembling of the Pandora instead of waiting for parts and praying.
 
I wonder whether the also recounted the units that were refurbished and sent out as new to other customers :p
 
I didn't think they'd refurbished any at this point? Did I miss something? :blink:
 
Prometheus said:
EdCa22 said:
TBH, it is misleading for the team to even say they have shipped 1000.... this implies that 1000 customers have received pandoras.
Well, they didn't actually say that, really. :p A mailshot said that they were about to ship the thousandth unit. The relevant text follows;

As many of you will already know the Pandora finally started
shipping in May and after a few teething problems we are about to ship
the 1000th unit. We aim to keep it at the top with near continuous software
tweaks and updates.

Have shipped/about to ship ... isn't that almost exactly the same thing?!
 
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Saying that they're about to ship the thousandth unit doesn't, to me at least, read as being the same thing as implying that one thousand customers have received a unit each, no. :p

Your mileage may vary, of course - I simply read "we are about to ship the 1000th unit" literally, as I can't see any other way of reading it.
 
Prometheus said:
Saying that they're about to ship the thousandth unit doesn't, to me at least, read as being the same thing as implying that one thousand customers have received a unit each, no. :p

Your mileage may vary, of course - I simply read "we are about to ship the 1000th unit" literally, as I can't see any other way of reading it.

It seems a little pedantic, but yes you are right, and I have to admit that with all the maths I am being pedantic too. However, I still think that most people reading would think that the 1000th unit will very soon in the hands of a customer, and that more-or-less everyone ordered a single unit, implying that almost 1000 customers have units.... and that is what is misleading.

However, I am supposedly 400-500 in Craig's order queue, and haven't yet received a unit, and am not alone.

Let's say that I am at position 450, to take the median of my estimated position, then my actual position out of 1000 would be 620 if everyone ordered one unit (i.e. 450*(4/3) + 20). For my actual position to be 1001, i.e. assuming I am the very next one to receive a pandora, which I doubt, everyone before me would have had to have ordered 1.62 units (1000/619), or putting it in another (perhaps clearer) way, every second person before me would have to have ordered more than 2 (2.2 in fact) pandoras, both of which, to my mind, seem highly unlikely.

Which brings me back to my original point - that it just seems impossible for them to have shipped 1000 pandoras, unless a significant proportion of them have been returned after shipping and replacements shipped out to the same person, which again is misleading.

Supposing a combination of factors, we could say that an arbitrary number of people before me in the queue ordered 2 units, e.g. 150 (and even this seems high). That makes 300 pandoras for 150 orders. So then I still have 620-150 = 470 orders to go before mine, and there are 700 pandoras left. So if 230 of the remaining 700 failed, I will not get a pandora. And that is still a very high failure rate (23%). And with any failure rate, they are still not being entirely honest if they say they have shipped 1000 units. The exact truth would be 'we have shipped 1000 units, but a few hundred were faulty and got sent back'. Even if it's the truth, it's not the whole truth.

I'm really not trying to bad mouth the team here (well, I actually am doing that, but I really didn't want to), and I know my figures and sums will never exactly reflect reality, but they do show that something is awry. It'd actually be really nice if someone could explain to me how I'm wrong or how I missed something significant - but I just can't see it myself right now, and I think I just snapped. The only way all they say can be true is if they actually have some 300 faulty units sitting around which have been shipped and then returned, or they have really messed up the queue position estimates so badly that they basically mean nothing. Otherwise I, and many others, really should have one by now. After very nearly two years of waiting since ordering it is just kind of annoying that they are glossing over the facts in their marketing gumpf and telling people all is well, when clearly thousands of paying customers are still patiently waiting. Not providing all the information about exactly what is happening with production I can forgive, I know they are busy and stressed and worried, but misinformation in this way really gets to me and seems unfair and disrespectful to the people who have so much faith in them and their project and who they are reliant upon for success. What _really_ gets me is I didn't even get sent the damn happy email about this 1000th unit being shipped. :angry:

Saying all that, there is nothing I can do except drop my order, and I am still going to just sit here and wait like a chupa chup. :(

And, I guess, as they are a company, what do I expect? What would I do in their position?

I guess I'm asking for it by ranting on a public board like a chump, so bring on "what's your order number", "we dont want you as a customer anyway so go away", "cancel your order then", "even if you win you're still retarded", "someone got up on the wrong side of bed" and all the other jokes and memes! :)

Sigh. Definitely time for a cigarette break. :p
 
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I'm really not trying to be pedantic. :lol: I honestly just read it as it's written and didn't think any more into it than that - I just tend to do that sometimes.

Regarding you not receiving that e-mail, I gather that it's being sent out in dribs and drabs, since it also contains a private URL and I'm guessing that they don't want a rush on their server. I haven't seen one in my inbox either, but I expect it will show up at some point.
 
Prometheus said:
I'm really not trying to be pedantic. :lol: I honestly just read it as it's written and didn't think any more into it than that - I just tend to do that sometimes.

Regarding you not receiving that e-mail, I gather that it's being sent out in dribs and drabs, since it also contains a private URL and I'm guessing that they don't want a rush on their server. I haven't seen one in my inbox either, but I expect it will show up at some point.

Fair enough then.

Perhaps I have yet to receive the mail, though I didn't get the previous one either.

I guess I just needed to let off some steam. Feeling better now I've had lunch and tea :D
 
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Doesn't seems to make sense, does it? Apparently 1000 units were shipped to customers but many people around line 500 still never got an email. Why aren't places in line actually correlated with shipped unit order?
 
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