Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Please stay safe, y'all


JDTAY

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Oh man, have you guys heard about the #COVIDZero movement?

I'm torn. It says that the only way to eliminate a virus is to eliminate it, which is true. I just wonder what makes them think they can. No-one's ever eliminated a coronavirus before, to my knowledge.

At this point, I'm expecting to just have to roll with the punches for a few years.
 

Robert Taylor

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LOL. No.

A new strain was found in AU this month thought to have originated from a pizza shop:

 

pyrat

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I wish I could believe we can simply eliminate the virus. In some place for some time sure. China has managed quite well, New Zealand is famous for having eliminated it in democracy and rewarding the government for that... But the problem is that it should be out of everywhere at some time, and that's very difficult.
Not to talk of P, NP and worse, but we don't even have the resources to assess whether the goal is attained. Let alone the resources to achieve the goal. We can't test the whole world population simultaneusly a few times. And even if we could, the virus could stay in (other) animals. It is reported that the virus was present in people around the Mediterranean already in summer 2019 if not before, and nobody knew until december 2019 in Wuhan. If we ever got rid of the virus, how could we even know ?

And in practice there'll always be asymptomatic carriers that will import it any time some territory thinks it got it rid of it. I think the solution will come more from immuntiy (herd immunity or helped by vaccines, sooner or later) and with time the knowledge on the disease will improve and the treatments too. Once it runs out of vulnerable humans, it will reduce to a disease with fewer cases, and since most are light cases or asymptomatic, the severe cases and deaths will be even fewer, hospitals won't be overwhelmed anymore and we'll have more problematic diseases to care about. It may disappear from the media (possibly deservedly), but I doubt it will ever disappear completely. The Plague is unfortunately still with us, but we don't even vaccinate everyone against it, because it is no longer the problem it was in the Middle Ages. It's no longer killing one or two thirds of the population but 0,0000001% (cases, not deaths. which is still too many, but not at all so bad as once was).
 
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JDTAY

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I understand that people want this to be over, but some diseases are just harder to eradicate than others. Why do you think we still have flu, despite getting shots for that every year? Coronaviruses are similarly elusive.

I just don't want people blaming Biden and the like when this thing fails to go away.
 
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Djoga'Ro

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@JDTAY A vaccine is still the strongest gun you could have in the arsenal. There are annual flu shots, since there are many variants of the flu - doctors decide every year what strains to vaccinate against/what's up and coming. Might be that we'll end up doing the same for COVID19 - not because of a plethora of variants but because of no lasting effect. Who knows.

Alternatively, maybe we'll have some sort of nanobot we could enrich the atmosphere and other spheres with. And Trump gets the access keys for defining new targets. He'd never have to fire or evict anyone again. :)
 

JDTAY

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Still freaking out about maybe being exposed to COVID-19. NC COVID-19 website says to wait until six days after you've been exposed to get tested if you have no symptoms, but I don't even know if I was exposed. Just gotta wait for symptoms.

I didn't post it in here yet, but I'm staying at my apartment for Thanksgiving. My older sister didn't want me and Dad at her place. My dad invited me over to his place, but there will already be ten people there, and we have a ten person limit on gatherings in North Carolina right now.

I was reading a website earlier saying that even ten person gatherings weren't safe. Remember, it only takes one person to screw over nine other people.
 

levi

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This is a seemingly decent tool that was recently promoted on a BBC podcast that gives you the risk of assembly in various states around the US and around the world. First of all, set the number of people who gathered before zooming in on the map, because if you change it the map resets. From what I read, I think the assumption is that it's an indoor assembly with moderate or average ventilation and nobody wearing masks, and people not sufficiently socially distancing. From what you've said that's a reasonably approximation for the restaurant even you witnessed. From what I've sampled, nowhere in NC has a more than 50% chance of developing disease in a meeting of size 15, which would suggest you probably haven't been exposed and infected, and even then you might not express a decently measurable disease, which still means you shouldn't meet up and try to pass it on any further. But first you need to go to the site and put in your approximate meeting size, then see what the risk is where you went.
 

JDTAY

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Good news for people worried about the new mRNA tech in the first two COVID-19 vaccines.

AstraZeneca says COVID-19 'vaccine for the world' can be 90% effective | Reuters

AstraZeneca made one based on conventional vaccine technology. Not only is it potentially safer, it's way cheaper, easier to mass produce, and easier to store.

We might end up in a situation where only the US uses its own vaccines, and everyone else uses this stuff.
 

JDTAY

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My state is giving a COVID-19 update press conference right now. They've changed the number of counties classified as critical from ten to twenty.

For people in the ten new critical counties, it probably makes them more alert, but me being from one of the original ten critical counties, it actually makes the situation in my county feel less dire.

There's something about a new executive order too, but I got tired of watching. I'll check the details after the conference.
 

matzesu

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Some of the speakers on the Corona Demonstration are turning the Wheel:
I heard that one of them compared themselves to Sophie Scholl, who was in the third reich one of the Members of the „Weisse Rose“ Organisation that fought against the Nazi Regime and was executed then..
:(


Send from something, i guess ^^
 

levi

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Yes, the AstraZenica/Oxford Uni vaccine could well be a game changer, since it can be transported in a general purpose chilled wagon. I understand we've ordered a chunk of those, as has Russia, and if anywhere was I'd have though Russia would be only using the Sputnik vaccine, but apparently not.
 

pyrat

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Yes. And AstraZeneca/Oxford is rushing it a little less. I remember back in March or so, we had doubts on what we could achieve. We don't have vaccines for all diseases, and some of them took decades to find. Would we be able to find a vaccine in time ? Fortunately we have now several. I'm worried that they rushed it too much, and we won't know secondary effects or real effectiveness (I guess that'd take a couple of years) before mass deployment (but then again the deployment won't probably be so massive as they now let us think, because the logistics are challenging, for some vaccines more than for others). But the good news is that if we get half a dozen vaccines (there're about four dozen candidates already), eventually some of them will be usable. If we only had one, and we started to deploy it and find it is problematic, we'd be much more screwed. I read scientists worried (1, 2, 3) that proper checks are being skipped (and maybe they must be skipped, COVID-19 is no ordinary disease), but at least we have several candidates, so even if some eventually fail, some will result to work fine.
 

levi

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Reportedly from what I've heard, the reason some of these tests have completed so quickly is due to the reduction in delays between the phases of the trial. Most trials people take their time gathering results, and there are delays in even starting the next phase of the trial because of problems getting people to all start on the same date. The difference this time is there's a lot more money around which always helps to motivate people, plus people can't really find anything more important to do than to support finding a vaccine for covid-19.
 
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