Covid-19 (Coronavirus) - Please be safe y'all

levi

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Yeah, I was offline the past 2 days due to a borked update, but today the death stats are all over the place. The good news for rygD is that they're definitely higher, but no use for tracking stats, so I've not updated my post on the last page yet.

Edit: Or the page before, page 5 I think.
 

docbroke

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Needs more death
Obviously when Hubei changed criteria to include clinically diagnosed cases they only counted deaths in clinically diagnosed patients after 12th Feb., all deaths that occurred before 12th Feb in clinically diagnosed cases ( but not confirmed by lab ) were not added to the count, but number of total cases has seen bigger spike as many who were clinically diagnosed before 12th Feb (and are still alive) are now included in cases (who are technically not new cases) creating sudden spike in one day.
 

docbroke

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13th Feb, 121 new deaths and 5090 new infections in china.
There is no major shift in coronavirus cases despite sudden rise in cases on 12th Feb in china - WHO
Coronavirus cases are not rising dramatically outside China ( only exception being cruise liner docked in Japan).
No data is available from North Korea, which has reported nothing yet.
 

levi

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Yeah, also nothing from Mongolia last time I checked, despite being surrounded by China and Russia who've both had cases. But that's probably got more to do with a lot of the country being underdeveloped and not really having labs and stuff where this can be tested. I'm not even sure how medicine works in their largest city, their capital ulaanbaatar.
 

docbroke

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Who is reporting only laboratory confirmed cases
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As per chinese reporting
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As per chinese count total cases are 66492, with 1523 deaths.
First case of coronavirus in Africa (Egypt) reported on Friday, as confirmed by Egypt health ministry.
 
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levi

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Ah, so it looks like as the BBC suggested yesterday that the spike in deaths was down to China reporting deaths amongst those who were only checked in a CT scan and not via the slower lab test who died in the past week or maybe more as happening yesterday.
 

docbroke

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On Sunday: China reported 2009 new cases (total >68000) and 142 (total 1665) deaths. -- as per chinese counts which includes clinically diagnosed cases.
WHO continues to count only lab confirmed cases, which is 50580 total cases globally and 1527 new cases.( reported yesterday )

Total four deaths reported outside china 1 each in Philipines, Japan, France and HongKong, with total >500 cases

image.jpg
 

docbroke

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@docbroke Is there information, how many of the dead were under care?
I haven't found that specifically mentioned, but I guess that means all of them were under quarantine as all contacts of known cases are traced and monitored.
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To give an example, when a case of coronavirus was detected in India, everyone who came in his contact during his arrival from china to India were traced and monitored, which included those sitting within 2 rows of the flight he travelled, everyone who visited the place were he stayed, worked etc. So with 3 cases in India around 3000 persons are actively monitored for signs of infection.
 
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FBnil

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Longer cut (subtitled) here: (warning - graphic)

Another lady crying here (warning - graphic)

Wuhan is has 11 million inhabitants, New York has 8.7, Paris 2.1. Imagine a total lockdown. Where to see the doctor you need a certificate, and even then, you need to travel to 5 hospitals to get treated, but there are no doctors, nor beds. No gasoline to leave, and constant vigilant drones that tell you to go back inside.
There is this video of how water pipes are leaking straight into the rooms of the patients (those hospitals build in 5 days that leak). This virus spreads in water and moist conditions make containment worse.
 

levi

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What makes you think the virus can live in cold water? It's particles may be moved by flows of fluid, but nobody anywhere yet has suggested that mains water is a carrier, and should you drink water containing virus particles it would need some of that particular matter to latch onto your gums to later be breathed in. And that makes it into your stomach is likely to be reacted with the hydrochloric acid found within.

Water coming into a ward obviously isn't good but mainly because of mould and fungus issues resulting, rather that direct virus transmission, I'd suggest.
 

FBnil

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What makes you think the virus can live in cold water?
I quote from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12560-008-9001-6

The time required for the virus titer to decrease 99.9% (T99.9) shows that in tap water, coronaviruses are inactivated faster in water at 23°C (10 days) than in water at 4°C (>100 days). Coronaviruses die off rapidly in wastewater, with T99.9 values of between 2 and 4 days. Poliovirus survived longer than coronaviruses in all test waters, except the 4°C tap water.
Note that once you step on the water and it splashes in micro waterdrops, can become active again if it, say, is inhaled.

They survive much longer on a wet surface (hours) instead of a dry surface (minutes).
The virus attacks the lungs... and
Do not lap up that water from the ground! Use a faucet instead.
I checked that and stomach acid is 4-5, so you should be save drinking that, just dont inhale through your mouth:
The sensitivity of coronaviruses to pH variations has been established for a number of them. They are more stable at slightly acidic pH (6 – 6.5) than at alkaline pH (8).

source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3509683/

 

FBnil

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Yet more links (one with real data - a GIT repository -, if someone wants to dive into charts and extrapolation)




other previously posted links:
 
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levi

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Hong Kong's travel shutdown seems to have come just in time. The Chinese region just adjacent to hong kong (Guangdong, if I'm remembering right) has 1241 cases as of Thursday, but Hong Kong still only had 50 cases, although it looks to still be on the rise there so it might be relatively widespread at low doeses. Taiwan and Macau are relatively more isolated.
 
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