A way to divine your number in line?

[MonkeyChops]

This is interesting information, I'm in.

Order Completed: 30 September 2008 at 15:39:32

EDIT - well that's weird... ^^ that time is when my order says it was completed but I received the confirmation email at:

Tue 9/30/08 10:39 AM Eastern Time
which should be:
Tuesday, September 30, 2008 at 14:39:00 GMT

What am I missing?

 

[amnesiasoft]

I really need to write a program to do this for me. And make it try to give a rough approximation of where you are in the entire line.

 

[MonkeyChops]

yea if you could use the information you gather to estimate the purchase rate per hour for each hour, you could write a program (even a speadsheet could do it) that gave an approximate place in line. That won't really tell people when they will get their pandora but would still be cool.

 

[sean1279]

9/30/08

1:43 EST

 

[cosam]

yea if you could use the information you gather to estimate the purchase rate per hour for each hour, you could write a program (even a speadsheet could do it) that gave an approximate place in line. That won't really tell people when they will get their pandora but would still be cool.

The best information we have is right there on the openpandora.org homepage:
a) 2000 sold in the first 6 hours.
b) 3000 expected to have been sold some time during 1st October.

Add to that:
c) Preorders started about 14:00 GMT.
d) Approx. 3800 units were sold by end of 5th October.

My guess is that server performance was the bottleneck during the first 6 hours, so the number of orders per unit time would be roughly level. It'd then likely have tapered off roughly linearly up to the 3000 mark, then more steeply towards the 3800. Draw a graph of that and you'll have a decent idea of where you are in the queue.

 

[bakawhite]

Oct 5, 2008 10:54 AM Edit: Central American Time

 

[MonkeyChops]

Ok so if you ordered in the first 6 hours, take the time that you ordered and subtract it from the start time then divide that by 10.8 seconds (6 hours divided by 2000 = 1 pandora sold every 10.8 seconds) and that should give you a rough idea of your place in line.

Mine is 14:39:32 - 14:00:00 = 0:39:32 (2372 seconds) / 10.8 seconds = 219.63 so around 220th place

If you ordered after the first six hours, the purchase rate varies so an estimated place in line gets more complicated and less accurate.

I'd say if you took the total pre-oder time minus the first 6 hours and divided it by 1800, that would get you reasonably close. If its not close enough for you, do the graph thing steve was talking about.

 

[jaycee900]

I'm not holding my breathe that the orders will be sent out in the order they were pre-ordered, I mean the pre-order emails were supposed to be the same, yet I subscribed twice to be on the safe side, the 2nd time was the day before the pre-orders opened, yet i got that email 2 hours after the pre-orders started and my original subsciption from Mar/April i got over a day later, so obviously the emails were being sent out last in first out.....so like I said i won't hold my breathe and probably the orders will be sent out in a randon order, i mean who is gonna find out!?

 

[TaG]

The batch emailer was different to whatever store software they use, or just plain matching against emails sent - this will be a case of pick the top one, get the parts together, mark as complete. It's actually easier to send them out in the right order rather than random.

And as I'm posting I might as well play the game:
30/09/2008 15:25:33 BST, which should be 14:25:33 GMT.

 

[Eisner]

I ordered mine via Paypal on Sept 30 @ 08:07:37 PDT which is 16:07:37 GMT.
I later had a refund and re-ordered via Visa but I was told that my place in line would be guaranteed.

That would put me in 15th or 16th place ??

D)

 

[TaG]

I ordered mine via Paypal on Sept 30 @ 08:07:37 PDT which is 16:07:37 GMT.
I later had a refund and re-ordered via Visa but I was told that my place in line would be guaranteed.

That would put me in 15th or 16th place ??

D)

You wish! Probably more like 1015th.

Don't forget there are many people that have not posted here and they sold 2000 in six hours, starting (so people are suggesting) at about 14:00.

 

[MonkeyChops]

16:07:37 - 14:00:00 = 7657 seconds / 10.8 = 709th place (as close as you can guess with the information we have)

 

[jaycee900]

Mine was 14:32 GMT, so at a guess around 200th place, would have been slightly higher but was at work and kept checking the computer, but had to pick a big job so couldnt check for that 1/2 hour! never mind, hopefully I'll get mine in the first half of November!...well before xmas anyway!

 

[Eisner]

I ordered mine via Paypal on Sept 30 @ 08:07:37 PDT which is 16:07:37 GMT.
I later had a refund and re-ordered via Visa but I was told that my place in line would be guaranteed.

That would put me in 15th or 16th place ??

D)

You wish! Probably more like 1015th.

Don't forget there are many people that have not posted here and they sold 2000 in six hours, starting (so people are suggesting) at about 14:00.

Why do you have to burst my bubble ??? ..
As long as I get one eventually that works, then I will be happy.
I can wait....

D)

 

[TaG]

Why do you have to burst my bubble ??? ..

Sorry. My only defence is realism - if you thought you were 15th and saw 900+ posts saying "I got mine..." you would be proper miffed.

 

[ConsistentChaos]

Tue, 30 Sep 2008 14:25:01 GMT - ConsistentChaos

 

[Eisner]

Why do you have to burst my bubble ??? ..

Sorry. My only defence is realism - if you thought you were 15th and saw 900+ posts saying "I got mine..." you would be proper miffed.

I know man, only playing with ya....

D)

 

[DuFace]

Sep 30, 2008 at 14:14.
:] that would make me what, #4? in this list anyways.

 

[km2783]

30 Sep 2008 19:15:35.0688 (UTC)

Purely in the interest of the list being as accurate as possible of course.

Purely...

 

[darkowl]

30 September 2008 19:05:40 - Lee

Quite a bit later than a lot of people ordered the p&|a soon after getting the pre order e-mail.