Neelix
Insecticidal Maniac
I was being somewhat facetious, hence theThis sounds like you've misunderstood probability: If the probability of an airline accident is 10^-5 per flight and you have had more crashes than was likely in the last two months, then the probability for the next flight is still 10^-5.In terms of accidents though, given the relative rarity of airline accidents, statistically speaking Malaysia Airlines is probably your safest choice right now.![]()
If you change anything then you would include those past crashes in the statistics, so the probability of another crash would be estimated higher.
@ekianjo Looking at the principle from another angle: Say you have six dice, all showing a 6. You can look at the whole collection and say there are 36 dots in total, but if you then look at any one particular die, it still has only 6 dots, regardless of the wider context.
- Neelix
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