Malaysia Airlines

[Neelix]

In terms of accidents though, given the relative rarity of airline accidents,  statistically speaking Malaysia Airlines is probably your safest choice right now.

This sounds like you've misunderstood probability: If the probability of an airline accident is 10^-5 per flight and you have had more crashes than was likely in the last two months, then the probability for the next flight is still 10^-5.
If you change anything then you would include those past crashes in the statistics, so the probability of another crash would be estimated higher.

I was being somewhat facetious,  hence the at the end.  I do get that it doesn't actually work the way I was implying.

@ekianjo  Looking at the principle from another angle:  Say you have six dice, all showing a 6.  You can look at the whole collection and say there are 36 dots in total,  but if you then look at any one particular die, it still has only 6 dots, regardless of the wider context.  

- Neelix

 

[Hồng Thất Công]

I'm pretty sure that if you look at the probabilities she has more risks to die in a car accident on the way to or back from the airport than during a Malaysian Airline flight...

Humans are pretty bad at evaluating risks.  We tend to overreact to such news and stories, and ignore the facts. Keep your head cool, and check the statistics.

 

[moxie]

I'm pretty sure that if you look at the probabilities she has more risks to die in a car accident on the way to or back from the airport than during a Malaysian Airline flight...

Humans are pretty bad at evaluating risks.  We tend to overreact to such news and stories, and ignore the facts. Keep your head cool, and check the statistics.

But the probability for her to survive a car crash is way higher than that of an airplane crash.

Yes, but given the relative occurences of car crashes and airplane crashes, she is still more likely to die from a car crash. 

 

[Hồng Thất Công]

But once she gets on that plane, she is more like to die if the plane crashes than the car that takes her to the airport crashes.  We can do this

all day

 

[moxie]

Still dependent on the "if the plane crashes" And I agree with whomever said it earlier - If anything, Malaysian ought to be safer than any other airline right now. Not for probabilistic reasons (obviously), but because if there is any airline that will have extremely well-done security and maintenance checks in the near future, it is them.

 

[Null]

We can do this

all day

I hope you all do I'm finding this discussion strangely interesting.

Edit: Thread appears to have died.

 

[rygD]

I still prefer Malaysia Aliens.

 

[Null]

The thread has been resurrected.

 

[Binky]

Going back to dodgy probability, they key point is this:

Suppose the chance of an aircraft crashing is independent of all other aircraft/crashes.

The chance of three crashes in one year is tiny.

BUT two crashes have already happened!

The chance of three crashes, given that two crashes have already happened is exactly the same as the chance of only one crash.

 

[Null]

New theory: Space Jesus did it. h34r:

 

[comradekingu]

I see what they are trying to do, it isnt real malaysia. Its _air_ malaysia. hmmm!

 

[rygD]

Going back to dodgy probability, they key point is this:


Suppose the chance of an aircraft crashing is independent of all other aircraft/crashes.


The chance of three crashes in one year is tiny.


BUT two crashes have already happened!


The chance of three crashes, given that two crashes have already happened is exactly the same as the chance of only one crash.

This is how I understand things to be also.  The chances of an outcome are the same every time in a given scenario, regardless of past events.  When things get funny is when you change the game, as with the Monty Hall problem, but I don't even know if that applies to this.  The dice thing used earlier got me thinking about probability, and I love doing Monty Hall simulations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

 

[comradekingu]

You all seem so convinced. Step this way sir. Welcome aboard my new airline "Air statistics"

We fly very safely, and take great pride in being mediocre at what we do, at the overhead displays you will see the horrific accidents that rarely happen.

Those people chose to put their faith in the very same low figures that their own deaths were a statistically almost irrelevant part in, as they came thundering down.

Screaming, screaming for mathematical approximation and interpolation. And to be fair, technically speaking those were ground statistics.

There is strength in numbers, and our numbers of unrecoverable errors just keep getting better with every mile we fly.

Air statistics - we havent crashed till we're there, yet.

 

[rygD]

If the plane and crew meet all regulated requirements the chances of an accident by one of their flights is as high as by one from any other airline.

not sure how well this fits, but it came to mind: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

 

[ekianjo]

Suppose the chance of an aircraft crashing is independent of all other aircraft/crashes.

But it's very likely not. Anyway.

 

[comradekingu]

Well the frequency at which airlines perform checks on their aircraft against the rate at which they find faults is one thing to consider.

Since there isn't any too many fixes and never too few errors to have in air, one could further theorise this has something to do with why checks are carried out in the first place.

Its almost like there is a reason accidents happen.

Maybe there are even rules as to why planes stay up. Could be.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The only check we do at Air statistics is adjust our https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias prior to takeoff.

Dont think it cant kill you, it happened to me, said noone ever.

We never do repairs because there is hardly ever anything fatally wrong. And when we have tried, we made it worse. Playing it safe there.

 

[rygD]

I was on a plane that had been cleared for flight after whatever checks are done.  While we were in the air they were having some sort of major problem, so we stopped over in a country we weren't supposed to be in and waited 17 hours on the plane (it was already supposed to be around a 20 hour flight).  The reason for the length of the delay was something to the effect of they had to fly someone somewhere to get something then they had to fly to us to fix the problem.

I recall watching something where a family explained that the reason planes can fly is because Jesus holds them in the air.  I can't find a video of it.

 

[Null]

I recall watching something where a family explained that the reason planes can fly is because Jesus holds them in the air.

I told God that this would leak out somehow, but would he believe me, course not. :rolleyes:

 

[ekianjo]

Its almost like there is a reason accidents happen.

Most of time it's a series of malfunctions which are poorly handled by humans in a chain of events. Planes are built with multiple redundancies and do not crash on their own so often. Like for AF447, its basically the incompetence of the pilots that killed everyone.

I recall watching something where a family explained that the reason planes can fly is because Jesus holds them in the air.  I can't find a video of it.

did this forum just become reddit or something ?  

 

[Null]

did this forum just become reddit or something ?

*Downvotes comment*