gruso
thunderbox
That's a half truth.
Anyone Interested In 1St Batch?
- Thread starter Nik1
- Start date
paulguy
Member
Well, he gave a lot of random numbers about his position, but let's say he's around position 1750, that being the average of the randomness he spewed. The chance that you'll get it sooner would be about 56.25%.
First, we want the chance that you'll be after him, so you'd be bumped up one, so: 4000 - 1750 = 2250. So 2250 out of 4000 chance that him canceling will bump up your order.
Expressed as a percent: (2250/4000) * 100 = 56.25
There are some other factors like the split between craigix's and ED's stores and of course if they're all in the same bunch when delivered, they'll both have more or less the same chance of being delivered at the same time, but there's no way to predict that with much accuracy (and within my abilities, as this is all just really basic math.).
So pretty much given the the fact that it's unlikely that you'll go from one shipping batch to a previous shipping batch by just being bumped up one, the percentage is probably somewhere around 1%, assuming ~100 pandoras per day.
Yes I am bored and tired. I get weird and overanalytical when I'm tired.
First, we want the chance that you'll be after him, so you'd be bumped up one, so: 4000 - 1750 = 2250. So 2250 out of 4000 chance that him canceling will bump up your order.
Expressed as a percent: (2250/4000) * 100 = 56.25
There are some other factors like the split between craigix's and ED's stores and of course if they're all in the same bunch when delivered, they'll both have more or less the same chance of being delivered at the same time, but there's no way to predict that with much accuracy (and within my abilities, as this is all just really basic math.).
So pretty much given the the fact that it's unlikely that you'll go from one shipping batch to a previous shipping batch by just being bumped up one, the percentage is probably somewhere around 1%, assuming ~100 pandoras per day.
Yes I am bored and tired. I get weird and overanalytical when I'm tired.
Aninhumer
Guy with scary face.
The key factor is, the only way it would speed up your order is if it pushed it from being the first Pandora on one day to the last on the previous.
Otherwise they all get shipped out at the same time, and should arrive at the same time regardless of the time they're completed during the day.
Assuming they do 100 per day, that means there's only a 1% chance of that happening, and they're speeding up all the time.
Combined with the ~50% chance of it even being before them in the queue, you're talking about a 0.5% chance?
Otherwise they all get shipped out at the same time, and should arrive at the same time regardless of the time they're completed during the day.
Assuming they do 100 per day, that means there's only a 1% chance of that happening, and they're speeding up all the time.
Combined with the ~50% chance of it even being before them in the queue, you're talking about a 0.5% chance?
That's a 56.25% chance that a given order is behind him in the queue, and therefore your order will be bumped by him cancelling.
If, however, you were to buy his Pandora (which I will assume to be the same as taking his place in the queue, for simplicity), then the probability of receiving your Pandora sooner is a little more interesting.
If you are in front of him in the queue, the delivery of your FIRST Pandora remains unchanged, as you will have 2 if you keep your original order.
In this case, the increase in queue position is 0.
If you are behind him in the queue, your first Pandora will be his, which is order number 1750, meaning you move forward in the queue by an average of 2250/2, which is 1125.
Calculating the expected gain in queue position:
(1750*0+2250*1125)/4000=632.8
Therefore, you would expect to receive a Pandora around 633 queue positions earlier if you buy this position and keep your current one.
If you cancel your current order and buy this one, your payoff changes, as you can move back in the queue by an average of 875 paces.
Therefore, the new expected gain in queue position is:
(1750*(-875)+2250*1125)/400=249.99
This means that it is *in theory* advantageous to cancel your order and buy his.
However, this assumes that you have no idea what your queue position is, and that there is a significant difference between small changes in position. In reality, it is possible to estimate your position or even email and ask what it is.
Yes, I'm bored, but it's nice to see that the work I did on game theory last term has an actual use.
If, however, you were to buy his Pandora (which I will assume to be the same as taking his place in the queue, for simplicity), then the probability of receiving your Pandora sooner is a little more interesting.
If you are in front of him in the queue, the delivery of your FIRST Pandora remains unchanged, as you will have 2 if you keep your original order.
In this case, the increase in queue position is 0.
If you are behind him in the queue, your first Pandora will be his, which is order number 1750, meaning you move forward in the queue by an average of 2250/2, which is 1125.
Calculating the expected gain in queue position:
(1750*0+2250*1125)/4000=632.8
Therefore, you would expect to receive a Pandora around 633 queue positions earlier if you buy this position and keep your current one.
If you cancel your current order and buy this one, your payoff changes, as you can move back in the queue by an average of 875 paces.
Therefore, the new expected gain in queue position is:
(1750*(-875)+2250*1125)/400=249.99
This means that it is *in theory* advantageous to cancel your order and buy his.
However, this assumes that you have no idea what your queue position is, and that there is a significant difference between small changes in position. In reality, it is possible to estimate your position or even email and ask what it is.
Yes, I'm bored, but it's nice to see that the work I did on game theory last term has an actual use.
Morn
Member
- Joined
- May 13, 2010
- Messages
- 292
Aninhumer said:
That's the calculation from one's person egoistic point of view. But when you consider all the people that ordered from 1st batch you come to the conclusion that the cancellation would make 22.5 people get their Pandoras 1 day earlier.
22.5 is (4000 - 1750 /*assumed position in queue*/) / 100 /* assumed daily production */
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gibberish
Active Member
i'll give you £150 for it.
MarkoeZ
arr matey?
buy his pre-order and put yours on ebay?kingoddball said:
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Wolfsclaw
can't be longer than 2 months right?
Well it's sure easy to make some fast $$$ here. Maybe i should have ordered 5 pandoras, and sell 4 of them.
But I'd feel guilty.
But I'd feel guilty.
Nik1
Still Fresh
- Joined
- Mar 31, 2009
- Messages
- 32
/copydir said:
I removed the case case from my order early on, but on the receipt I asked them to make me (needed one for taxes) around January it included a case :S I was using that receipt for reference for my starting price. There is a possibility that winner might get surprise case if it wasnt removed from the order.
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kingoddball
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Oct 26, 2009
- Messages
- 1,686
Place your preorder on eBay.
j.pickens
Member
I reported this auction to ebay as a violation of terms of service.
WizardStan
Mega GP Mania
- Joined
- May 24, 2008
- Messages
- 16,731
Which term?j.pickens said:
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