As preorders are running fine so far, I could take the time to create a LibreOffice document that helps me predict production costs, funds, etc. The document is actually pretty complex. It takes the live orders into account and uses the percentage of each unit sold for predictions of future production run. It makes an ideal calculation (no failure rate) as well as a worst calculation (5% failure rate). It also deducts the percentage lost from payment fees (e.g. credit cards).
So, here's a litte calculation from the Live-Statistics :)
Is it enough to fund the production? Is it enough to continue the production afterwards? Here's a prediction!
In case you're in a hurry and don't want the details:
We got enough preorders already to at least produce the preordered ones! To produce 1000 Pyras, additional 220 - 280 orders are needed. To produce 1500 Pyras, additional 325 - 480 orders are needed. After we sold 1500 Pyras, we can afford to produce a little batch of 500 without any preorderings.
Once we sold 3000 Pyras, I can finally pay all the debts back to the Pyra investors!
After the first 950 - 1000 delivered orders, there will be a delay before the production continues (we can only afford those units once we received the final payments for the first 1000, so we can't order more LCDs before).
So much for the short info, here's the detailed one:
Is the current production safe? -------------------------------
The minimum production number we can start with is 500. We passed that number long ago.
Currently while I'm posting this, we're sitiing at 621 orders. That means I would need to be able to manufacturer at least 656 units (5% failure rate is the max one).
Those 656 units need a downpayment of about 125k EUR to GC. I also have some more additional costs (like finishing the molds, etc.). But we also received downpayments for the 621 ordered Pyras and already paid for the LCDs and batteries a long time ago.
If I add all that up (my own funds, the downpayments, the pre-production costs, etc.), we've got enough to start the production of those 656 units! So these are safe, yes!
What I didn't include there yet are the additional costs to get a new touchscreen - which are a whopping 30k EUR (as we need to buy at least 4000 of them). To do that, we would need a few more preorders (but only 10). So we're close here as well!
What's needed for the production of 1000 units? -----------------------------------------------
To be able to produce 1000 units, we still need some more preorders. If we want to produce 1000 Pyras (and get the new touchscreen as well), we need an additional 220 to 280 preorders (depending on how many new or pre-preorderers order those units, etc.)
That would be a total of 844 - 950 orders (depending on the failure rate as well).
It would be great if we could produce 1000 Pyras at once, so hopefully we'll get more pre-orders when I've got finished prototypes and can do more videos.
Once the first 1000 Pyras have been shipped, there will most probably be a little delay (unless we get at least a total of abour 1300 preorders,), as I need to buy 1000 more LCDs.
Batch 2: 500 Pyras more (a total of 1500 Pyras) -----------------------------------------------
As you can see, 1000 Pyras are NOT enough yet to produce more units without any further preorders. Once we've cleared and fully sold the first 1000 Pyras, we need at least 125 - 200 preorders before we can step up to 1500 units.
That should be possible though, once Pyras have been released and are out in the wild, it's probably easier selling the second batch (or do some Kickstarter / IndieGogo).
Batch 3: 500 Pyras more (a total of 2000 Pyras) -----------------------------------------------
Once we've reached 1500 sold units, we can finally start producting small batches to put them directly in stock. That would be a really, really great milestone!
... and then? -------------
Well, while 1500 sold Pyras get us enough funds back to produce them from stock, we still have to pay back 300k EUR to our investors who supported us when the Pandora was in an almost bottomless pit.
To be able to do that, we need to sell a total of 3000 units.
If we can achieve that, I'll be a happy camper. Finally!
I know (and always knew) it would be hard - but let's hope we can pull that through!
So... I hope you like the little prediction. Most important thing for you is probably that we already have enough preorders to get things running at all :)
Let me know if something is not clear or you have any further questions.
You can discuss about that here: https://www.pyra-handheld.com/boards/threads/current-statistics-and-some-pre...